Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
